Monthly Archives: February 2012

USDJPY last 77.60 Continued consolidation in USDJPY above…

USDJPY last 77.60. Continued consolidation in USDJPY above 77.50 and below 77.80 for the past two trading sessions have failed to make any head way, to the upside, nor have provided any signal that a short term peak is on hand. Our Bias remains to the upside and am expecting a break of 77.89 to confirm a potentially longer term low is in place and larger move to the upside develops.

Its hard to see the catalyst for this, but most ideally, it could be BOJ, which is meeting today and tomorrow and in light of the lower than forecast recently released GDP numbers, weakening the yen could be on the cards.

USDJPY last 77.67 Judging from the recent moment…

USDJPY last 77.67. Judging from the recent moment in this pair, it has been a strong momentum filled upward movement, that has failed to provide any dips for those, who missed to get in or remain short. Now that the dollar has its focus on 77.89 key resistant area, some sort of consolidation shall prevail and there after, expect a break that has the potential to even take out 78.30. A sustained move above here, signals a potential low is in place and targets 79.52/80.23 next week.

There are reports circulating that Japan’s Pension Fund (1.3T US), may consider investing in overseas assets to dampen the strength in the YEN. If so more good news for Japan and those who are long the dollar.

Last 1.5833 A potential top could be in…

Last, 1.5833. A potential top could be in place in Cable with yesterdays high of 1.59+, cable seems over extended, Now 1.5860 Pivotal has to hold for another attempt to the downside. Key support is 1.5790 region, Only a sustained move below here, will make us to call a top, and look for 1.5732/1.5612 as lower level targets.

Japan’s current account surplus shrank at its fastest…

Japan’s current-account surplus shrank at its fastest rate on record in 2011, as exports stumbled and energy prices soared, leading to the first shortfall in merchandise trade in decades, government data showed.

The result was partly due to extraordinary events such as the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan, but economists say that the yen’s persistent strength and a growing reliance on expensive energy imports mean the picture won’t improve anytime soon.

More @ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204136404577209764102295618.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

USDJPY 77.09 The yen now looks like the…

USDJPY – 77.09 – The yen now looks like the funding currency, in light of yesterdays RBA move, weaker across the board with the US dollar, technically, testing above 76.80 puts 77.30 into focus, may not give much trouble, if so, then look for 78.30 to provide some relief. Only a sustained move above here, signals potentially a bottom is in place.

Bloomberg Reports Japan Adopts Stealth Intervention as Yen…

Bloomberg Reports – Japan Adopts Stealth Intervention as Yen Gains Hurts Growth. Something always speculated and suggested as the right way forward.
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Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Japan sold its currency five times in the final quarter of last year, the Ministry of Finance said on its website today, as the government moved to shield exporters’ earnings from the impact of yen gains.

The ministry’s quarterly data confirmed speculation that the nation carried out so-called stealth intervention following a record daily sale of 8.07 trillion yen ($105 billion) on Oct. 31, when the Japanese currency climbed to a post World War II high of 75.35 against the dollar. Japan sold a total of 1.02 trillion yen during the first four days of November, according to the report.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-06/japan-adopts-stealth-intervention-as-yen-gains-hurts-growth.html

Technical – Stuck between 76.50-76.80 range, a breakout should occur to the upside, targeting 77.25/30 resistance levels. Break below 76.50 aborts.

USDJPY Last 76.75 I am looking for a…

USDJPY – Last 76.75, I am looking for a bottom in the multi year down trend in USDJPY this year. Are the lows already in place, can’t tell, is there a jerk of reaction below 76 figure, its hard to call, but it does seem a quite intervention is underway, JPY has seen the held up without much fanfare and some are attributing this to the much better than expected Employment numbers of last week.

Japan fell behind China, for the first time last year, this year {2012} it had it first trade deficit in almost 3 decades, reports also surfaced on the declining population in Japan and the stronger YEN is really affecting them.

The Koreans on the other hand are tasting success by overtaking most of Japanese corporations and the Chinese are also internally happy about the plight in Japan.

On the technical front, 76.80 is been tested, above here 77.30 is formidable. A break above here puts 78.20 back in focus, which am expecting to break this time around. This week we will also know about Japan’s fiscal situation. Break of 76.40 aborts and puts the 76 figure back into focus.

Traders are wanting a Japanese Intervention to be able to short dollar at better levels, if a slow bid intervention is already underway, a surprise is in store for those, who are looking for tops to short, all BOJ has to do, is hold up the BID.