Tag Archives: DJIA

INDIA NIFTY – Has 5400/5420 in view. This guy is not falling!

The last few sessions in the markets have been breath taking, Just a few days ago on FRIDAY, HOPIUM rose and the markets became once again happy go lucky!. Despite the geo political arena getting hotter, American Ships in the straits of Hormuz, plus IRAN completing their war cry exercise and demonstrating its war capability, and selectively saying, “Don’t mess with me, I have the fire power”, its possible, the USA now discounts the IRANIANS for all their empty threats.

Last year IRAN warned “No ships shall pass my seas” and a US SHIP turned back and headed further away, with that, IRAN said “IF YOU COME THIS WAY AGAIN!, I SHALL TAKE CARE OF U!.  A week later, when the SHIP returned, IRAN did nothing.

A whole lot of empty promises and lack of management displinary skills of IRANs arm forces, indeed raises many doubts, but then again, they have shown more than once, their inefficiencies, an example how they were not able to handle the naughty behavior of STUXNET or when their mililary depots blew up, due to “improperly of storage weapons” techniques.

A whole lot of questions are always raised, when it comes to IRAN, the sabre rattling has started to become boring, this could be the underestimation both parties could make, leading up to the escalation in world war three.

The USA may just push it further and strangle the IRANIAN even more, before the IRANIANS make the first move, due to fear attack.

indeed escalate world war 3, and the IRANIANS will indeed give them a tough fight, which will solve USA’s economic problems and the Industrial War Complex will once again have their way.

 

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The Loonie has broken to the downside and Yen is capped around 83.45.

The Loonie has broken to the downside and The dollar  is capped against the Yen at around 83.45, And whereas it looks like the bounce levels for CHF at 0.91 figure and EUR at 1.3245 appears near conclusion. Am not sure, if these breaks and  if it does, there is more upside for the currencies and more downside for the dollar, against the CHF and the EURO. {Targets CHF 89.60 / EURO 1.3455 levels}

This break above 1.3245/0.9100 {below} is required to provide confirmation that the US stock market rally is extending, and targets Dow 14000/1450 SP. In such a scenario, the currencies also extend and the recent weakness in the JPY can see it take out 83.50.

About 83.50 on the  JPY puts 85.50 into target, a key resistant level, whose break is required to provide evidence that the move for the USD towards 92-94 YEN is indeed underway. The JPY is the only trend at the moment that looks extremely healthy and with the most potential,  The bottom right, as expected, now for the larger big move, we have been waiting for will present itself in the coming weeks.

Only, If the bounce concludes, for the EURO and CHF and there is a reversal, JPY trend trade could be in danger as we shall see a lower stock market and cash moving back into safe havens, which the YEN has lately demonstrated a few times, as it inverse relationships to US stocks takes hold.

In the longer term, been parked in the dollar will look better than stocks, which are now over extended and there has been some substantial damage done for the bears, none are to be seen, the VIX has been crying out aloud.

Stocks may be poised to go crazy to the upside and it could be relatively fast and furious, with 14000 within weeks, and the SP 1450 in sight. Good levels to position to jump in on the turn around.

Never forget the short squeeze of the late nineties, The Nasdag went from 1000 to 5000 in a relative short period of time. Yes!, the Nasdaq gained close to 500% in a relative short period of time. 15 months {Oct 1998 to March 2000 bust). We could see a repeat here.

The stock bulls are pushing it once more again, very soon some juicy steaks will be on the table.

Short the Loonie, proxy to US Stock Markets

The loonie has been extremely resilient in the emergence of the US Dollar, which is gaining ground lately against most of the Majors, with the loonie been the most defiant, seems when the turnaround comes, the Loonie will provide confirmation of a stock market peak.  last USDCAD:0.9931, Key levels are 0.9950 close above signals, short term low in place, a sustained move above 1.0050 puts in on track for 1.0275 and potentially higher levels,  a move below 0.9975 (close below) questions this bias.

System goes long at 76.77 Break on USDJPY…

System goes long at 76.77 Break on USDJPY, USDCHF is well supported at 0.9333, I need to get in between, todays high and 0.9333. 0.93525 will be a good entry level, albeit expensive, if we have a failure at the stock market highs, a bounce could emerge, cause i be discouraged to buy below 0.9333, as 0.9242 could be threatened.

if there is a second attempt tonight. I could get into this trade.
Its possible, stocks have already made their highs.

As we head towards the opening month most…

As we head towards the opening month, most likely which will set the tone for the rest of the year, I would look at two scenarios before the significant bearish move to the downside.

Scenario no 1. This opening week will create a top in most of these markets and a resumption to the downside. The dow is up 2% today, and oil, gold, a few percentages as well. The euro seems confident. In Scenario no 1, we expect the markets to have or already have made a top today and allow the market to grind this entire week, before a break down on Friday. Which means the highs are already behind us today, or there is another one more attempt left to the upside, in either case, we expect a reversal back to pre holiday levels by Monday.

Which means continuation of the dollar to the upside and a RISK OFF attitude back in the markets.

In Scenario No 2. This market continues to the meltup and top off sometime in March and then we break new lows and even lower lows than last October 3, which if anyone has noticed was almost 22% away. The market has rallied much more.

My own bet is on the RISK OFF trade.

Dear Friends SHORT SUMMARY Markets are off a…

Dear Friends,
{SHORT SUMMARY:
Markets are off a few good handles in two days, SP almost 80. {Confirmation of a short term top}
SIGNAL: LARGER BEAR MOVE WILL BE UNDERWAY, ONCE PREVIOUS LOWS OF
OCTOBER 4th 2011 are taken out. {Evidence of a larger move is underway}

If the above scenario plays out, we should see a move of upto -25% from 2011 highs, within
the next few weeks, Mr Market needs a bailout!, Mr Government need a bailout. the race to global currency devaluation looks underway. If we stop printing, we deflate, if we continue printing, we stagflate.

In both scenario’s, the eventuality is deflation and depression. The great depression didn’t see market highs for the next decades, unemployment soared to 25%, and if scarcity of resources play out, a study of the great china famine, is a must. In short extreme periods of difficulty could be on the HORIZON.
How does one protect his exposure in such a scenario, is the short story of the day.}

Russia Markets got Halted, when this post was emailed out.

k.regards
dtrader

{DISCLAIMER: NOT FEAR MONGERING, this is simply a market rant.}

REDFLAG: Sequence of Events.

1) Rally of the Lows from 2008.
2) No New Highs, since last TOP.
3) Rallied Fueled by Cheap Liquidity, A Million in 2008 and before was a’lot of chips.
4) Jan 2011, First Breakdown occured in Asia, mainly India, China. {China is still 50% or more off its highs from 2007, INDIA will Follow}
5) The Western Markets breakdown started in July. Asia Broke even lower.
6) Europe Sovereign debt, Insurance premiums also soared.
7) Four weeks ago, China Defended its Banks, Insurance polices on Asian Bank Debt, premiums increased.
8) Response was, We will leverage 4-5 times on Money we will yet to raise by EUROPE.
9) Markets Rallied, almost {30% closer to previous HIGHS}, In a MONTH, {20% UPWARDS} in October 2011.
10) Yesterday MF Global Went bust, over Europe Debt, Counter Party RISK, play on. RISK OFF.

–> November has just started and may break October Lows, says so, the monthly charts.

As a technical analyst, I am watching some of my Monthly Charts as they Break Down, these tell me, “it will
take almost 13 months to come back, that’s the minimum, which means a single trend grinding
downwards for 13 months”, now couple that with the economic conditions we are facing.
It spells disaster.

When I put these together, it reminds me of 2000-2003 periods in Asia, bad times, Sars in Singapore,
Malaysia, India also wasn’t doing much better, real estate values were trading almost 70% lower
than their 1994 highs, in these countries.

This was the time to buy real estate in Asia, with or without money, deals were available.

Now what worries me? is Deflation, {IS the liquidity/debt DRIVEN binge of the last 30yrs, coming to
an end?} and what also worries me is Stagflation, a period where, there is zero or very low growth, high unemployment, coupled with High Inflation.

Stagflation may continue to persists, till we are able to figure out, how to bring back growth and make it sustainable, the constant flow of the fiat money pumped into the system, will only bring about stagflation.

Inflation will rear its head, due to scarcity and hoarding of resources in the face of deflating Fiat Money.

If we deflate it would be better, that means less credit, higher interest rates to squeeze the excess
out of the system and we can build up again later in the next 10-15 years.

There are two ways going forward, print more, pump more leveraged liquidity into the system,
and suffer stagflation, the BRICS may suffer from HYPERINFLATION, since they rather keep their US FX RESERVES high / FX low to remain export competitive, they too are also running FISCAL DEFICITS.{The race to global currency devaluation}.

Hence We need a bailout, the power of punch has to be greater than 2008, expansion of balance sheets
have to be far greater than before, to have an impact and in the face of what the FEDERAL RESERVE believes in, They believe, if they don’t continue printing and paying off previous coupons, then deflation will step in, and prolong the downturn. The result will be known in time, maybe with a few more revolutions and rewarding bad behavior and calling it moral hazard.

So if we deflate then the trade is stay long CASH! as all asset values will become cheaper.
If Stagflation, borrow at whatever better rates and pay back later in cheaper currency.

But as always all fiat currencies eventually go bust, this is not the first time, even for the dollar.

The Eventually is, we will deflate and we will suffer deflation, the excess printing will simply delay the process, which is that of a fiat system going bust, the fiat economies and their respective countries will suffer deep pain, maybe starting with the EURO, if greece steps out of it, then sooner or later the others will also want too, after all, why give in to one central government, the power to print your fiat stored token of value, after all this is the only tool known to the central bank governors, pump and dump. SEE–>: The Vatican wants it some other way.

We need growth, we need to find a way to provide good decent jobs to people, so that society
can progress to the next level of evolution. Unfortunately, the only way found by each country is
to plunder the natural resources of the land and transfer them into so called GDP. It will run out,
one day. We need to find innovative ways to bring back growth.

{Everyone’s house already has gone through the process of RADIO, Black and White TV, Color TV,
Washing Machine, Microwave, etc}, we need to find out, whats the next stage in this process, what
has to come next?, which takes out one of these prior processes and brings about the next better enhanced
product or service. There is the formula, if only it was so easy to find one as i RANT.. 🙂

In any case, be careful, stay in cash, gold target is near 1200-1300, Euro 1.25, DOW below 10K,
SP below 1000, INDIA below 4500 in the next two months and for the eventual lows could
be as far as 70% from the previous highs, just like the NASDAQ top at 5000, to a low of 1000+,
or KLCI as low into the 300’s, the bear bites deep.

It will be deep for the countries who are running huge budget deficits. Hence safety found in the
markets are in some currencies who have budget surpluses, case in point, the CHF and YEN. These guys
are in the sweet spot, they can devalue yet the markets want to remain there, where else can the excess
liquidity go, I think, its back to THIN AIR, its after all where it call came from.

The dollar may remain BID during this interim. Its up to Helicopter BEN who is having a meeting
the next two days. If he heads to his HELIPAD, we have to head towards the precious metals
physical trade and stack them up. Cash will get cheaper by the minute. Farm Land is the safe bet
in a Hyper-Inflation Scenario. We don’t have to care how much food costs, if we can have some
grown in our own land.

Besides the market, the last few months have been giving me sleepless nights, two nights ago,
I almost gave up my shorts, when reviewing the whole europe story over the weekend, staying short in
this environment is just a protective measure, if they print, markets should double again, and in any
case, we are long LIFE, so a hedge strategy is simply a protective measure to survive the crash.

Belated Halloween Greetings.

dtrader
INFLATE OR DEFLATE?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

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