Tag Archives: ES

The Loonie has broken to the downside and Yen is capped around 83.45.

The Loonie has broken to the downside and The dollar  is capped against the Yen at around 83.45, And whereas it looks like the bounce levels for CHF at 0.91 figure and EUR at 1.3245 appears near conclusion. Am not sure, if these breaks and  if it does, there is more upside for the currencies and more downside for the dollar, against the CHF and the EURO. {Targets CHF 89.60 / EURO 1.3455 levels}

This break above 1.3245/0.9100 {below} is required to provide confirmation that the US stock market rally is extending, and targets Dow 14000/1450 SP. In such a scenario, the currencies also extend and the recent weakness in the JPY can see it take out 83.50.

About 83.50 on the  JPY puts 85.50 into target, a key resistant level, whose break is required to provide evidence that the move for the USD towards 92-94 YEN is indeed underway. The JPY is the only trend at the moment that looks extremely healthy and with the most potential,  The bottom right, as expected, now for the larger big move, we have been waiting for will present itself in the coming weeks.

Only, If the bounce concludes, for the EURO and CHF and there is a reversal, JPY trend trade could be in danger as we shall see a lower stock market and cash moving back into safe havens, which the YEN has lately demonstrated a few times, as it inverse relationships to US stocks takes hold.

In the longer term, been parked in the dollar will look better than stocks, which are now over extended and there has been some substantial damage done for the bears, none are to be seen, the VIX has been crying out aloud.

Stocks may be poised to go crazy to the upside and it could be relatively fast and furious, with 14000 within weeks, and the SP 1450 in sight. Good levels to position to jump in on the turn around.

Never forget the short squeeze of the late nineties, The Nasdag went from 1000 to 5000 in a relative short period of time. Yes!, the Nasdaq gained close to 500% in a relative short period of time. 15 months {Oct 1998 to March 2000 bust). We could see a repeat here.

The stock bulls are pushing it once more again, very soon some juicy steaks will be on the table.

Short the Loonie, proxy to US Stock Markets

The loonie has been extremely resilient in the emergence of the US Dollar, which is gaining ground lately against most of the Majors, with the loonie been the most defiant, seems when the turnaround comes, the Loonie will provide confirmation of a stock market peak.  last USDCAD:0.9931, Key levels are 0.9950 close above signals, short term low in place, a sustained move above 1.0050 puts in on track for 1.0275 and potentially higher levels,  a move below 0.9975 (close below) questions this bias.

Before todays upmove the market had been like…

Before todays upmove, the market had been like dead, first good intraday move of 100pts on YM for the first time this year, volatility is possibly coming back, I would think the down leg should start downwards today and make a low by next week monday. For the monthly options expiry, elephants trumphet once again. Short the dow march futures at 12445 region. ES hasn’t been to deliver any better edge, YM looks good to me.

Break of 1290 ON ES March, will prove some headaway into possibility of this scenario and deliver a minimum of 1270 on ESH2 and 12300 on YMH2. A good plan and a trade.

Last 12426/1289
The Dollar is also rising on the down move. This looks good so far, would like to see 12400 clear to the downside on YM and ES should clear 1286, then some confirmation can be given as evidence for this trade.

Our House soap and toothpaste is finished i…

Our House soap and toothpaste is finished, i only realized this, when i had to look, only taking shower now, whole day in front of the screen watching, haven’t slept for almost 24 hours.

What was i watching?, two things. For one i missed out the trade on USDCHF, i entered to long at the wrong price, saw it move against me by a distance, and since i was so so away from the recent lows, that made me upset.

My judgement to catch that move from the recent low was missed by me, by a distance. This is an uncertain situation. All of my Long dollars positions in the month of {Dec2011} gave me a 25% return on equity within a month. I realize that i am good trader, maybe better than an ALGO bot. I am trading the US markets, after a long break of 2 years plus. I stopped at the 2009 lows. The strategy then, was to long at the lows.

Anyways, back to the day, so the story actually was about the soap and toothpaste. As i said, i just realized this evening, exhausted and still adrenaline pumped. I also couldn’t sleep.

I need to find a way to get back long dollars on the swiss, this trade is headed higher, possibly the dollar could hit much higher highs, as we closed the year on a higher note for the dollar. The stock market is rallying, in an next to impossible environment, its hard for the stock market to move higher with a stronger dollar, since it hurts growth, exports and various parts of the economy.

So since i am expecting a higher dollar and lower stock market, i need to sit up, to find a nice entry short on the ES/YM, and i am also concerned, if this market turns around and i am right, it might be big trouble for India, China, and possibly even Europe. The higher dollar is inflationary for the world.

It also concerns me when I see, Stocks in India, Hong Kong, Singapore, and China are sitting on some significant low levels. A higher dollar, a declining stock market, will indeed become a disaster, and its also inflationary.

On this higher dollar trade, I am expecting USDJPY to clear 78.20 resistant, and head towards 80.23 as in step one of the upmove. The next higher leg of USDCHF is targetted towards 0.9728 region.

these are my regrets of this day.