Tag Archives: Opening year thoughts and predictions

The New Trends

The New Trends – 1st Quarter 2012.

Lets analyze what are we witnessing thus far.

1. In the previous quarter, consumer spending was still bid based on availability of cheap deals and deal based sites were the master of the day, it seems the deals sites in the current interim have now started to bleed, with lack of availability of any new loss making deals, which didn’t go well with merchants and with reluctance of merchants and retailers to go down this path, the deals have not only dried up, as they realize the very little value additions by deals based websites to their business.  Case in point, low numbers of groupon and various other deal sites.

The consumer is more cautious and will not pay for anything that he doesn’t need and involves in extensive research in an event he needs anything, be it a product or service. A tight market in general, with uncertain conditions, inability to determine tomorrow. Therefore save for a rainy day, mentality presets.

2. Volume has never been so bad in the markets, bearish bets have declined to almost a five year low, with the Vix breaking down below 15 yesterday, the same remains with retail sales figures across most markets, yet somehow government reports differ, on the dry bulk market, shipping is in a very bad shape.

The above two factors are sufficient to suggest that growth is missing in this stock market rally and till that is fixed, it hard to see how else will the situation turn around.

Our House soap and toothpaste is finished i…

Our House soap and toothpaste is finished, i only realized this, when i had to look, only taking shower now, whole day in front of the screen watching, haven’t slept for almost 24 hours.

What was i watching?, two things. For one i missed out the trade on USDCHF, i entered to long at the wrong price, saw it move against me by a distance, and since i was so so away from the recent lows, that made me upset.

My judgement to catch that move from the recent low was missed by me, by a distance. This is an uncertain situation. All of my Long dollars positions in the month of {Dec2011} gave me a 25% return on equity within a month. I realize that i am good trader, maybe better than an ALGO bot. I am trading the US markets, after a long break of 2 years plus. I stopped at the 2009 lows. The strategy then, was to long at the lows.

Anyways, back to the day, so the story actually was about the soap and toothpaste. As i said, i just realized this evening, exhausted and still adrenaline pumped. I also couldn’t sleep.

I need to find a way to get back long dollars on the swiss, this trade is headed higher, possibly the dollar could hit much higher highs, as we closed the year on a higher note for the dollar. The stock market is rallying, in an next to impossible environment, its hard for the stock market to move higher with a stronger dollar, since it hurts growth, exports and various parts of the economy.

So since i am expecting a higher dollar and lower stock market, i need to sit up, to find a nice entry short on the ES/YM, and i am also concerned, if this market turns around and i am right, it might be big trouble for India, China, and possibly even Europe. The higher dollar is inflationary for the world.

It also concerns me when I see, Stocks in India, Hong Kong, Singapore, and China are sitting on some significant low levels. A higher dollar, a declining stock market, will indeed become a disaster, and its also inflationary.

On this higher dollar trade, I am expecting USDJPY to clear 78.20 resistant, and head towards 80.23 as in step one of the upmove. The next higher leg of USDCHF is targetted towards 0.9728 region.

these are my regrets of this day.

As we head towards the opening month most…

As we head towards the opening month, most likely which will set the tone for the rest of the year, I would look at two scenarios before the significant bearish move to the downside.

Scenario no 1. This opening week will create a top in most of these markets and a resumption to the downside. The dow is up 2% today, and oil, gold, a few percentages as well. The euro seems confident. In Scenario no 1, we expect the markets to have or already have made a top today and allow the market to grind this entire week, before a break down on Friday. Which means the highs are already behind us today, or there is another one more attempt left to the upside, in either case, we expect a reversal back to pre holiday levels by Monday.

Which means continuation of the dollar to the upside and a RISK OFF attitude back in the markets.

In Scenario No 2. This market continues to the meltup and top off sometime in March and then we break new lows and even lower lows than last October 3, which if anyone has noticed was almost 22% away. The market has rallied much more.

My own bet is on the RISK OFF trade.

A Ship in Harbor is Safe, but that’s not why, Ships are build.

A Ship in harbor is safe, but that not why, ships are built – Dynamictrader

A Ship in harbor is safe, but that not why ships are built, The necessity of understanding risk and defining its existence, its behavior, adapting to it and finding ways to exploit it, is why, a ship in harbor is safe, but that’s not why ships are build. Is it not?

“Technical analysis is much more than “tea leaf reading” or “crystal ball gazing” descriptions sometimes used by those who simply don’t know more any better. But neither is it the “holy grail” promising instant riches to its practitioners. Technical analysis is simply one approach to market forecasting based on a study of the past, human psychology, and the law of probabilities. It is certainly, not infallible. But it is a technique that works more often than not, has stood the test of time in the real world of trading, and is worthy of study by any serious student of market behavior – Author of Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets – John J Murphy

One evening, while having dinner with a fundamentalist, I accidentally knocked a sharp knife off the edge of the table. He watched the knife twirl through the air, as it came to rest with the pointed and sticking into his shoe. “Why didn’t you move your foot?” I exclaimed. “I was waiting for it to come back up,” he replied – Ed Seykota (an avowed technician)

Trading the markets have few rules, there are a dozens of them sold by advisors who promise the world for the holy grail, Dynamictrader is not just another site selling information to traders we are giving it free, there are few individuals who make money consistently in markets that are trending or sideways, and what are their secrets, we disclose it all, Dynamictrader trend trading dynamics concept is based on the winning formula of trend trading, the objective of trading is not to see what’s happening today, but beyond that, look beyond technical analysis and you will see.-Daniel Mankani.

A Ship in harbor is safe, but that not why ships are built.

Preparing oneself to trading is the most important task, learning dynamictrader trading concepts requires commitment’s and understanding to the basic functions to the markets, trading profitable is a science which can be taught and not a talent as some might suggest, and trading on instincts can be profitable for some, but its not long before the markets will show their way, there’s no one stronger than the market, let alone not to mention even the Federal reserve, we have all seen the actions of central bank been taken for a ride in the markets, so even a Hedge Fund with loads of money cannot change the course of the market, and the trend remains the strongest.

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Which markets should one trade ?
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What techniques should be applied after a losing trade?
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First Published; Feb 24 1999.
Source: http://web.archive.org/web/19990208004136/http://dynamictrader.com/

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