Tag Archives: YM

Market Stalling Are we done yet The rally…

Market Stalling. Are we done yet? The rally since last december seems like a never ending story, everyday up without fail or very small down, we are near the 52 weeks high on the DOW today, another 20pts and it would have been a New High. In this run up, the SP and Nasdaq are weaker in comparison, Whats going on here folks? Is someone holding the market up. That’s the feeling that i get…..

Then if we look again, the dow only comprises of 30 Stocks, anyone buying these stocks up and providing the world with Hope, is certainly doing a very nice job.

The Baltic Index is near 2008 Lows.

In any case, I think today we have a chance of a turnaround, the Euro and the Dollar are both near their corrective levels. We were indeed oversold on the euro at 1.25 Zone, there had to be a short squeeze coming, when FX IMM currency bets were at the highest against the euro. The squeeze is here guys and think its near about done. Lets see if 1.3225 holds or not. I feel todays 1.3180 was about it, and we turn from around these levels.

Dow has given back most of its gains and its trading near its lows. It may break down into the close. if it does, maybe this could be the first leg down for the top.

Alternatively we may only top somewhere around March 2012. Lets see how this trade plays out. Taking a long stand on the USDCHF.

Break lower on the Dow, will take a short on the march dow or get some puts.

Before todays upmove the market had been like…

Before todays upmove, the market had been like dead, first good intraday move of 100pts on YM for the first time this year, volatility is possibly coming back, I would think the down leg should start downwards today and make a low by next week monday. For the monthly options expiry, elephants trumphet once again. Short the dow march futures at 12445 region. ES hasn’t been to deliver any better edge, YM looks good to me.

Break of 1290 ON ES March, will prove some headaway into possibility of this scenario and deliver a minimum of 1270 on ESH2 and 12300 on YMH2. A good plan and a trade.

Last 12426/1289
The Dollar is also rising on the down move. This looks good so far, would like to see 12400 clear to the downside on YM and ES should clear 1286, then some confirmation can be given as evidence for this trade.

Our House soap and toothpaste is finished i…

Our House soap and toothpaste is finished, i only realized this, when i had to look, only taking shower now, whole day in front of the screen watching, haven’t slept for almost 24 hours.

What was i watching?, two things. For one i missed out the trade on USDCHF, i entered to long at the wrong price, saw it move against me by a distance, and since i was so so away from the recent lows, that made me upset.

My judgement to catch that move from the recent low was missed by me, by a distance. This is an uncertain situation. All of my Long dollars positions in the month of {Dec2011} gave me a 25% return on equity within a month. I realize that i am good trader, maybe better than an ALGO bot. I am trading the US markets, after a long break of 2 years plus. I stopped at the 2009 lows. The strategy then, was to long at the lows.

Anyways, back to the day, so the story actually was about the soap and toothpaste. As i said, i just realized this evening, exhausted and still adrenaline pumped. I also couldn’t sleep.

I need to find a way to get back long dollars on the swiss, this trade is headed higher, possibly the dollar could hit much higher highs, as we closed the year on a higher note for the dollar. The stock market is rallying, in an next to impossible environment, its hard for the stock market to move higher with a stronger dollar, since it hurts growth, exports and various parts of the economy.

So since i am expecting a higher dollar and lower stock market, i need to sit up, to find a nice entry short on the ES/YM, and i am also concerned, if this market turns around and i am right, it might be big trouble for India, China, and possibly even Europe. The higher dollar is inflationary for the world.

It also concerns me when I see, Stocks in India, Hong Kong, Singapore, and China are sitting on some significant low levels. A higher dollar, a declining stock market, will indeed become a disaster, and its also inflationary.

On this higher dollar trade, I am expecting USDJPY to clear 78.20 resistant, and head towards 80.23 as in step one of the upmove. The next higher leg of USDCHF is targetted towards 0.9728 region.

these are my regrets of this day.