Market Stalling. Are we done yet? The rally since last december seems like a never ending story, everyday up without fail or very small down, we are near the 52 weeks high on the DOW today, another 20pts and it would have been a New High. In this run up, the SP and Nasdaq are weaker in comparison, Whats going on here folks? Is someone holding the market up. That’s the feeling that i get…..
Then if we look again, the dow only comprises of 30 Stocks, anyone buying these stocks up and providing the world with Hope, is certainly doing a very nice job.
The Baltic Index is near 2008 Lows.
In any case, I think today we have a chance of a turnaround, the Euro and the Dollar are both near their corrective levels. We were indeed oversold on the euro at 1.25 Zone, there had to be a short squeeze coming, when FX IMM currency bets were at the highest against the euro. The squeeze is here guys and think its near about done. Lets see if 1.3225 holds or not. I feel todays 1.3180 was about it, and we turn from around these levels.
Dow has given back most of its gains and its trading near its lows. It may break down into the close. if it does, maybe this could be the first leg down for the top.
Alternatively we may only top somewhere around March 2012. Lets see how this trade plays out. Taking a long stand on the USDCHF.
Break lower on the Dow, will take a short on the march dow or get some puts.
Key support now comes in at 12377/1284, A close below is required to confirm our trade, determining factor for keeping it overnight. Stops at break even.
Only a move below 12150 on YMH2, we can safety say, a potential high is in place. We could just have a covering gap move today to the downside, by the looks of it, this market is acting dead.
Stops Placed. Now let it ride.
WE are still hanging in there. but the consolidation displays weakness or a tiring market. Break of 1286 is needed and 12400 on YM. Calling a top is far harder in fake markets.
Before todays upmove, the market had been like dead, first good intraday move of 100pts on YM for the first time this year, volatility is possibly coming back, I would think the down leg should start downwards today and make a low by next week monday. For the monthly options expiry, elephants trumphet once again. Short the dow march futures at 12445 region. ES hasn’t been to deliver any better edge, YM looks good to me.
Break of 1290 ON ES March, will prove some headaway into possibility of this scenario and deliver a minimum of 1270 on ESH2 and 12300 on YMH2. A good plan and a trade.
The Dollar is also rising on the down move. This looks good so far, would like to see 12400 clear to the downside on YM and ES should clear 1286, then some confirmation can be given as evidence for this trade.
USDJPY long and YMH2 short looks good for now. Chased USDCHF upto 0.9447 expensive entry.
Need a break below 12280 on YMH2 to confirm the safety of this trade. Opening gap uncovered.
YM Short 12300. Precautionary trade. Just in case. Looks like will have to do “the chase” on USDCHF at higher levels. Waiting for break on USDJPY to confirm long trade.
Am looking for a bounce in YM towards 12378-12405 region. Where I would preferably like to get in.